USA
U.S. macro data shifted the rates narrative in real time this week. January CPI surprised modestly on the downside, with headline inflation easing to 2.4% y/y (from 2.7%) and core at 2.5% y/y, helping markets re-price the probability of Fed easing later in 2026. The labor picture stayed resilient: the January jobs report showed +130k payrolls with the unemployment rate at 4.3%, reinforcing the “soft-landing but not weak” baseline. Weekly jobless claims backed that up, with initial claims down to 227k for the week ended Feb 7. In activity data, December retail sales were flat m/m, signaling some cooling in goods demand without a sharp retrenchment. Markets ultimately treated “cooler inflation” as supportive, but not enough to offset a tech-led de-risking tied to AI disruption/ROI anxiety and crowded positioning: for the week (Feb 9–13), the S&P 500 fell ~1.4%, Nasdaq ~2.1%, and Dow ~1.2%.
Europe
Europe’s macro impulse was dominated less by fresh growth/inflation prints and more by global rates spillover plus earnings dispersion and sector rotation. The STOXX 600 ended Friday slightly lower on the day but still eked out a small weekly gain (~+0.09%), with performance masking sharp internal moves: banks were notably weak (worst weekly drop in ~10 months per Reuters) while pockets like defense and select industrial/tech names moved on guidance. Earnings remained a key catalyst (large single-name swings in financials, industrials, and consumer sectors), and the market continued to debate the “AI disruption” risk premium—especially for business models seen as vulnerable to automation or to capex booms that may not earn their cost of capital. For the week using local index closes: DAX ~+1.9%, CAC 40 ~+0.5%, while Spain lagged with IBEX 35 ~-1.5%.
Japan
Japan remained a “policy + positioning” story. The post-election “Takaichi trade” kept risk appetite elevated early in the week (equities, yen, and JGBs all moving as investors reassessed fiscal stance and policy continuity), and the Nikkei briefly broke 58,000 intraday before consolidating amid profit-taking and earnings reactions. The week also highlighted how sensitive Japanese equities are to FX and rate moves: a firmer yen and bond rally can cap exporters even as domestic cyclicals benefit from pro-growth expectations. By the close of Friday Nikkei 225 was 56,941.97 and TOPIX 3,818.85; versus Feb 6 closes this implies a strong weekly advance of roughly Nikkei ~+5.0% and TOPIX ~+3.2%.
China
Mainland China and Hong Kong traded with an “into the holiday” tone (liquidity thinning, positioning cautious, and sensitivity to global tech sentiment). On the mainland, Shanghai ended Feb 13 at 4,082.07 after a risk-off session attributed in part to global AI-capex sustainability concerns and pre-holiday positioning; versus Feb 6’s 4,065.58, that still leaves the Shanghai Composite slightly higher (~+0.4%) over the week. Hong Kong was more volatile given its heavier mix of internet/tech and global risk beta: using Feb 6 and Feb 13 closes, Hang Seng rose ~+1.1% over the week. Overall, the region’s index outcomes were less about domestic macro releases this particular week and more about (1) global rates relief from softer U.S. inflation, (2) rotation pressure on tech/software linked to AI “winner/loser” re-rating, and (3) tactical de-risking into Lunar New Year closures.